Wellington should again boss territory and the ball with their high press and 60%+ possession, while Macarthur sit in a mid-block and spring wide counters into the space behind Payne’s replacement. That structure keeps tempo high in both directions rather than one-way traffic. All four Phoenix league games finished with both teams scoring, and their recent numbers (1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per match, zero clean sheets) scream open exchanges. Macarthur’s profile matches: 0.8 goals scored but 3.5 shots on target, 2.5 big chances created and 2.0 missed show an attack that still generates good looks, backed up by BTTS landing in four of their last five overall. Recent H2H trends and perfect conditions on a top-quality pitch reinforce a trading-game script instead of a cagey chess match.

Devils push pace and hunt O-zone time; Islanders sit in structure and pray for Sorokin magic. Edges: NJD’s elite PP vs NYI’s middling PK, perfect home form, Allen’s hotter hand, deeper 5v5 shot quality, Isles’ finishing due for a chill after the shutout pop. Special teams tilt + home ice seals it.

Mallorca will boss territory with the 4-2-3-1: Darder between lines feeding Joseph and the aerial magnet Muriqi, while Getafe’s 4-4-2 looks to compress, foul, and spring Mayoral/Liso on direct outlets. Edges: (1) Home shot threat vs away output — Mallorca 3.8 SOT/game to Getafe’s 2.7, with Mallorca creating 1.6 big chances/game. (2) Set-piece lane: Getafe commit 16.1 fouls/game and De Burgos averages ~5 yellows; that invites Darder/Maffeo deliveries onto Muriqi. (3) Territory and pass volume: 319 completed passes vs Getafe’s 196 underlines who carries the ball and piles pressure. (4) Availability tilt: Mallorca’s core creators start; Getafe travel without Neyou and with a reshuffled back four (Abqar-Duarte), volatile away profile (3W/3L).

Toulouse will press from a compact 3-4-2-1, funnelling Lorient’s shaky buildup into turnovers, then spring Gboho/Méthalie into the inside channels; Lorient lean on direct balls to Bamba and Tosin with Le Bris for supply, but a back three that leaks space will invite trouble. Edges: Lorient have shipped 11 in their last five (2.3 conceded per match this season) while Toulouse have allowed just 3 in their last five and post 4 clean sheets in 11. Seasonal xGA splits favor the visitors (TFC 15.5 vs Lorient 17.6). Toulouse’s recent goal differential +5 (8–3) pairs with Restes–Nicolaisen–Cresswell anchoring a low-error block. Aron Dønnum is suspended, yet Cásseres Jr. dictates tempo and Toulouse’s set structure travels better than Lorient’s volatile press. Strict referee (≈4.1 YC/game) tilts a choppy game toward the more organized side.